# Irma



## .Mike (Sep 6, 2017)

Well, this one is not looking good for us in the southeast. I hope everyone down in Florida is making their preparations.

We're exactly 1 mile from the Savannah River, which is tidal, and 10 -12 miles to the ocean. Our plan is to ride out category 3 or below, and evacuate for category 4 or higher. We do not yet have an evacuation destination in mind.

We stayed for Matthew in October, which hit us as a category 2. We had minimal damage, and were one of 6 houses in our neighborhood that never lost power. The folks down the block had major damage, and haven't even moved back in yet!

Our prep is underway. Tons of water, food, batteries, etc. I'll be trimming back trees tomorrow, and coming up with a plan for my boat. The plywood I bought for my floor might have to be repurposed.

Bottled water is getting hard to come by, as are batteries. I've heard rumors of lines at gas stations, but I haven't seen any. I don't think there is a single cat cage for sale in the whole city.

I hope everyone here stays safe!


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## richg99 (Sep 6, 2017)

I hope that storm makes a big right turn and goes out to sea. 

We do not need another catastrophe in 30 days.

richg99


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## KMixson (Sep 6, 2017)

richg99 said:


> I hope that storm makes a big right turn and goes out to sea.
> 
> We do not need another catastrophe in 30 days.
> 
> richg99




You got that right. It is bad enough Houston got hit by Harvey. Now Irma is lurking and Jose is looking to get in on the action. I can't wait for hurricane season to end. I am pretty much prepped for it as far as can but a hurricane is unpredictable. It can wipe you out in a heartbeat. Well, I hope all of our fellow members are ready and are able to come through this with no more than a scratch. Good Luck, Everyone.


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## gnappi (Sep 6, 2017)

Every active hurricane season before a storm I see many thousands of people on TV who are totally unprepared and then what do they do? Go buy water, tape, and plywood? WTF??? 

I'm in Florida since 1976, here's what I learned...

1. I have NEVER EVER lost water service, so I don't buy water, I buy beer, gatorade etc. I ALWAYS keep a case of water for fishing, and after a storm if there's a boil water order and I have no power my dog and cat will not go thirsty. If there's a boil water order and I have power, I can boil water. 

2. A generator is affordable, much more affordable than throwing away a freezer full of meats, which a neighbor did TWICE being too value conscious to get a genset.

3. I have many rechargeable batteries, of all sizes AND multiple chargers, and DC powered lights, radio, fans for when I shut the genset off.

4. Not only do I have shutters, I have EVERYTHING on hand to install them, but EVERY YEAR I hear that folks are running around looking for wingnuts. Last hurricane a passing by rube INSISTED I sell him MY wingnuts and leave my house unprotected. The ones that buy plywood? Sheesh, with plywood selling for $30 (and up) each sheet I think shutters are a better deal. 

5. I have a camp stove and BBQ. I can cook three meals on them and eat. After Wilma I was out of power for well over a month, and we got by pretty well.

6. I have a Tracfone as a backup. Tracfone has been THE most reliable phone after a storm. I've had one for decades. 

My preparations are minimally expensive IMO, especially if you acquire the necessary items in years BEFORE severe storms strike. Why so many are frantic before a hurricane mystifies me.


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## richg99 (Sep 6, 2017)

You are a smart guy, Gary. 

You've learned from experience, and put that learning into action. 

I own a big generator. I bought it because someday, my house in Houston might need it. I won't be there if the storm is in the Summer, but that is OK with me! 

My kids can start it and live in my house for a while if their homes have any major issues.

I also have two window air conditioners in my wood shop. They can be removed and used anywhere that they fit. We can't run the whole house a/c on the generator, but we can run those window a/c units. 

Guess the Boy Scouts were right....Be Prepared.

richg99


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## .Mike (Sep 6, 2017)

Florida is so susceptible to hurricanes. You guys are much better prepared than us, and for good reason. We're kind of tucked in along the coast, and rarely get hit. Our last actual landfall was in 1979. The Carolinas usually take the hit for us. 

The freakout factor is high right now. When Matthew hit us in October, people really freaked out the last couple days before the storm. It seems the lesson learned was to start the freakout a couple of days earlier.

We buy bottled water and freeze it to use in place of ice. That's how we plan to preserve food for a little while if we lose power. We camp a lot, so being without power isn't much of an issue.

This storm looks worse with every update.


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## gnappi (Sep 7, 2017)

.Mike said:


> We buy bottled water and freeze it to use in place of ice. That's how we plan to preserve food for a little while if we lose power.



I used to live on salt water and went fishing several times a week. I had a side by side refrigerator with a very productive ice maker. I just filled many 1 gallon zip lock bags with ice from the refrigerator and it was always there when I needed it. This is less expensive ice, and I don't have to transport it from the store. 

Today I do the same and take one bag in a cooler every time I go fishing. For the storm season I double up on the amount of ice I store.


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## lovedr79 (Sep 7, 2017)

i hope it goes out to sea. my stepdad came back up to virginia the other day from florida. hopefully irma dies down. his house that is supposed to be mine one day is right in the path


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## onthewater102 (Sep 7, 2017)

180mph winds is unlike anything anyone's ever seen in a hurricane in the US (basically a ~23 mile wide F3 tornado) and the wide range of uncertainty as to where this thing is going makes me happy I live in CT, though Montana's appeal is growing. 

If an F3 tornado is capable of overturning trains, throwing vehicles and tearing roofs off of well constructed homes (not just wrecking trailer parks) then wherever that eyewall hits land anyone in its path is in serious trouble.

Prayers for anyone stuck unable to get out of its way and natural selection for those too ignorant to do anything.


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## .Mike (Sep 7, 2017)

I tried to find an indoor spot to put my boat, but it looks like it is going to have to sit in the yard. 

I've come up with two options. Does one of these sound better than the other? Any other suggestions?

1. Put the boat on the ground, flip it over, put some anchors in the ground, and strap it down.

2. Put the tongue on the ground, put in some anchors, and strap the trailer down. If the boat is right side up, it will fill with water. My theory on putting the front end on the ground is that it can only fill to a certain point, and then overflow. Otherwise, I would be relying on the drain hole to prevent it from completely filling, which seems unwise. The water weight should help weigh it down.


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## richg99 (Sep 7, 2017)

The recommendations on a mostly Florida boat site that I follow on Facebook leaned towards....

Assuming that you have to leave the boat outside.

Remove tires from trailer (they will tend to float). (anchor them down )
Block axle of trailer up with concrete blocks
Buy screw-in mobile home/pet anchors and screw them into the nearby ground.
Using chains or heavy straps, strap the boat (upright) and the trailer to the anchors
Half fill the boat with water (this assumes you won't ruin your electronics, I guess)
remove batteries from the boat and store up high and safe.
If you have a permanent gas tank in the boat, fill it with gasoline to add weight.

I have not had to use ANY of these recommendations personally, and am just passing them on. If you were worried about messing up your electronics, I'd guess you could put some 5-gallon buckets in the boat and just fill those with water. Don't really know.

richg99


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## onthewater102 (Sep 7, 2017)

Important thing is to not let there be an air pocket allowed to form under the boat - this will be at a higher pressure than the fast moving air to the topside.

Knocking the wheels off the trailer dropping it to the ground and filling it with water sound like your best bet for a small tin. Lay it flat on the ground if you can.


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## RiverBottomOutdoors (Sep 7, 2017)

Very scary stuff. It seems the future is now and storms/disasters like Irma and Harvey could be the new norm. Frightening thought.


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## .Mike (Sep 7, 2017)

What worries me about filling it with water is the weight of the water. I estimate that my boat will hold about 6,000lbs of water. That was the reasoning behind putting the bow on the ground, to allow overflow before the boat completely fills up.

On the trailer, I can't imagine that either the boat or the trailer would survive that weight. On the ground, maybe, but there would be a lot of pressure pushing out. Obviously, these boats are built to support water pushing in from the outside, not pushing out from the inside.

That is the argument I've read in favor of flipping it and strapping it down. As long as it doesn't flood, the boat stands a better chance of surviving. We are expected to be safe from flooding through a category 4. The latest projections put Irma as a category 3 when it hits us.

I'm not sure what I'll do, but I'll be doing it tomorrow! We are now in a state of emergency, and have a mandatory _political_ evacuation starting on Saturday, but that has no real bearing on my decision to evacuate.


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## Rumblejohn (Sep 7, 2017)

They just moved to cone to the west a bit. If nothing changes at some point, the entire state may see hurricane force winds.
I have lived here for 65yrs and been through several bad ones, but this one could be the worst one to ever hit the state of Florida.
Irma has slightly stronger winds, and is twice the size of Andrew. Looks like it is coming straight up the middle. And to add insult to injury, my cellphone just turned into a brick.

Say a prayer for Florida

John


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## gnappi (Sep 7, 2017)

Rather than filling the boat upright, or turning it over and strapping it down, I think I'd strap it down, upside down remove the plug and if water rose no harm it wouldn't float anywhere, the removed plug would let the boat fill with water and it would be self draining.


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## .Mike (Sep 8, 2017)

Yeah, that is what I decided to do. My boat is 230lbs, and my 5' tall wife and I removed it from the trailer last night, and flipped it over. My motor is sitting in my laundry room... heh!

We woke up this morning to find that the models have shifted from us getting a direct hit, to us maxing out at tropical storm or cat1 levels. We're still prepping, but have pretty much ruled out evacuation. We're still under an evacuation order for tomorrow at 8AM, but now our emergency management agency is being universally mocked.

Florida just isn't going to avoid Irma, so I am hopeful that good prep, modern construction, and advanced notice minimize the impact.

A few sites to share...

I'm sure a lot of people have seen this site by now. Lots of models, presented in a nice, 1990s-birth-of-the-internet format: https://spaghettimodels.com/

Here is a site that we have used for years. 7 models that you can evaluate yourself. We like the European models for when the storms are far out, and the Navy model when it gets closer: https://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

And last, a Twitter feed. I hate Twitter/Facebook, but this guy's feed is great. During Harvey, he live streamed the storm from a carwash less than a mile from the eye. He is currently in Miami. https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski


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## Stumpalump (Sep 8, 2017)

Little rain and a big puffy class 4. Yawn. Florida will not be gone next week. Few areas directly hit by eye wall or near shallow water storm surge will play well until the next big news event.


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## onthewater102 (Sep 8, 2017)

^^^easy to say when you're in Arizona LOL

People always seem to mock emergency management agencies for alerting them to dangers that never materialize but they fail to process that these forecasts are known to be uncertain from the beginning, and therefore to serve whoever ends up getting hit they need to warn everyone who could get hit.

They can't wait until 6 hours before an event when the forecasts are precise enough to estimate the local area which will be hit and tell whatever population is there to get ready and out - there isn't enough time. 

Those that dismiss current warnings because previous warnings were ultimately unnecessary fail to comprehend simple middle-school levels of probability analysis. What is laughable is the really ignorant out there conclude that it is part of some far reaching conspiracy to force them to make purchases of safety materials they don't "need". It's ok...natural selection will catch up with them eventually.


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## gnappi (Sep 8, 2017)

onthewater102 said:


> ^^^easy to say when you're in Arizona LOL
> 
> People always seem to mock emergency management agencies for alerting them to dangers that never materialize but they fail to process that these forecasts are known to be uncertain from the beginning, and therefore to serve whoever ends up getting hit they need to warn everyone who could get hit.
> 
> ...



Good on you! 

God bless those who can still think and evaluate facts. The FACT is, they gave us a CONE which is a likelihood that landfall will be anywhere in it. 

The possibility of an east coast brush and it possibly moving some 90 miles west is somewhat of a relief, but I'm ready and anyone who isn't is a idiot, and well... sorry, 911 won't be working for you.


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## Rumblejohn (Sep 10, 2017)

Just now starting to get some wind and rain from Irma. Continuing prayers for our state. Hoping all of us make it with as little trauma as possible.
Please check in as soon as it passes to let us know you are okay.

Best to all, John


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## gnappi (Sep 11, 2017)

It's 03:15 and the winds have laid down. The genset did really well and we cooked, had TV and DVDs a big industrial strength squirrel cage fan is keeping the house a livable temperature.

A few cracked trees and debris all around was the worst of the damage.

Thanks for the thoughts.


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## richg99 (Sep 11, 2017)

Now a category one. The TV weather people sound almost disappointed.

Glad the worst of it seems to have passed you by.


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## onthewater102 (Sep 11, 2017)

Sounds like the surge got to my friend's house, but everyone in the family is OK. They only bought it earlier this year after moving down from CT. Waiting to hear how bad it is once they can get back to it. They are south of Fort Meyers and took a direct hit as it made landfall.

By the sounds of it there wasn't anywhere in FL that wasn't impacted to some extent or another, downed trees are one thing, a state full of them over every road is an entirely different matter.


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## .Mike (Sep 11, 2017)

Irma was nothing here. A bit of wind. A bit of rain. Higher than normal tides. We had a worse storm a couple of weeks ago.

They lifted the mandatory evacuation order 4 hours after it started. They reversed our highway, but nobody really left, so they quickly reversed it right back. We're in "Zone A" so we were technically still under a mandatory evacuation, but that advice was only taken by people who live directly on the water, or on the islands.

We drove the whole city today. 4 downed trees. Minor flooding of low areas and roads, particularly as you approach the rivers and marshes. Some minor power outages. Nothing compared to Matthew last October. Our city will be back in business tomorrow.

Saw this on River Street...


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## richg99 (Sep 11, 2017)

Lots and lots of lucky people. We have three friends here in TN. who have Florida houses near Ft Myers. None of them had any water or other damage.

Once again, the weather forecasters predicted far worse than what happened. I worry that the next time there is a cat. 4/5 coming, no one will pay attention. THAT will be the one that slams them.


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## KMixson (Sep 11, 2017)

It fizzled pretty quick. I would have thought it would have stayed a hurricane much longer than it did. Thank goodness my thoughts don't mean much. We had a couple of winds here near 50 mph and a couple of drenching bands of rain but all in all it was minor compared to what I was expecting. I hope everyone here is safe and didn't loose much if anything to this storm.


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## LDUBS (Sep 12, 2017)

I'm happy that Irma came in at less than the maximum possible loss scenario. Many avoided a potentially horrible situation. My thoughts still go out to everyone who lost a loved one and all of those many who suffered property damage as a result of this storm.


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## nowgrn4 (Sep 15, 2017)

S Tampa 1/3ed of the way down the peninsula here. We're Crackers and heavily prepped. Only big loss was half my 60' Cedar that was the highlight of my 30 years of landscaping. Went through my new fence bounced off my neighbors barrel tile roof and ended up resting across her pool.


Only out of juice for a few days, no biggie I have 4 genny's (loaned out 2) and a wall A/C unit in the master. We were super lucky, my heart goes out to all those that took the brunt of this calamity.


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## richg99 (Sep 15, 2017)

Glad that you lucked out. Most of the guys that have posted on the various fishing sites that I frequent got away with little damage. 

Of course, some who haven't yet posted may be out of power and just too darn busy to post.


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## nowgrn4 (Sep 15, 2017)

richg99 said:


> Glad that you lucked out. Most of the guys that have posted on the various fishing sites that I frequent got away with little damage.
> 
> Of course, some who haven't yet posted may be out of power and just too darn busy to post.



Thanks Rich, we're only out the $1,600 to get the other half of the cedar removed. Double click left to zoom in and check out the poor folks in the Middle Keys.https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/irma/index.html

I would imagine it will take a Herculean effort to get power, water and sewer restored just so residents can finally return. Months at least.


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## Rumblejohn (Sep 15, 2017)

Big laurel oak blew over onto the house. The roots took out about 20ft of driveway, but little damage to the house. Of course it's going to be about $8k just to get the tree off the roof, and another $500 to get the utility mast and meter box repaired. Then we can take a look at the roof. On the bright side, no one was harmed, critters are okay, and the boat rode out the storm just fine. 
I think Irma pretty much fizzled when she got just north of us, but Key West was beat up pretty bad, and they say Jacksonville took a good hit too.
Some people say "thought and prayers" are useless, but I will send them to all just the same.

John


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